Data sources and methods
Frost and freeze dates
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020, annual/seasonal normals by station (v1.0.1). We use the agricultural normals: ANN-TMIN-PRBLST (last spring freeze), PRBFST (first fall freeze) and PRBGSL (growing season) at 36°F, 32°F and 28°F, and PRBOCC (share of years with a freeze). U.S. government data, public domain.
Reading the odds. Spring: the 90% date is when 9 years in 10 still have a later freeze; the 10% date is when only 1 year in 10 does. Fall: the 10% date is when 1 year in 10 has already frozen; the 90% date is when 9 years in 10 have.
Matching a ZIP to a station
Each ZIP is a Census ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) with its internal point from the 2024 Census Gazetteer. We pick the nearest NOAA station that has published 32°F spring and fall dates at the 10/50/90% levels, preferring standard or representative records over estimated ones, and (where we have a USGS elevation for the ZIP point) switching to a nearby station at a closer elevation when the nearest one differs by more than 150 m. Pages show the station, its distance, and three nearby stations so you can judge local variation. County and place names come from the Census 2020 ZCTA relationship files.
ZCTAs approximate USPS ZIP codes. PO-box-only and single-business ZIPs have no ZCTA and no page of their own: we send them to the nearest ZIP page in the same state (within 80 km), using ZIP centroids from GeoNames postal code data (CC BY 4.0, license).
Hardiness zones
2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map ZIP listing (phzm_us_zipcode_2023.csv), PRISM Group, Oregon State University, https://prism.oregonstate.edu, accessed Oct 17, 2026. Shown as text, unaltered. This site is not the official USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map; see planthardiness.ars.usda.gov.
Soil temperature and forecast
Soil temperature comes from USDA NRCS SCAN and NOAA USCRN stations (public domain) and TexMesonet (Texas Water Development Board) in Texas. A ZIP shows a measured reading when a station is within 25 km and similar in elevation; otherwise an estimate from up to three stations within 100 km, labeled as an estimate. The 7-day forecast and Frost Advisory / Freeze Warning alerts come from the National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov) for the ZIP's center point.
Limits
Normals describe 1991–2020. They are not a forecast, and local conditions (low spots, slopes, cities) can shift dates by days or weeks.
Never miss a frost: get The Dial
Weekly yard timing, plus frost and soil-temperature alerts for your ZIP code.
Freeze alerts Soil-temp heads-up Weekly yard to-dos
Free. One weekly email plus alerts when your ZIP has a frost or a soil-temperature change worth acting on. After you submit, Kit (our email provider) sends a confirmation email: check your email and click the link to confirm. You aren't subscribed until you do. We collect only your email address and ZIP, sent to Kit to deliver The Dial. Unsubscribe anytime.